An Empirical Forecasting Study Of Vietnamese Tourism For Different Grey Forecasting Models

• Main Authors: Phung Thi Loc, 馮氏祿
• Other Authors: Chia-Nan Wang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/73920918747795868038

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 電子工程系 === 105 === Tourism contributes significantly to both the national economic growth and the economic welfare of local population. Since the 2000s, the Vietnamese tourism industry, which focuses on the core products of cultural tourism, marine tourism and resource-based tourism, has become an important segment of the economy although it has also suffered a lot from many difficulties during the economy recession. Accurately forecasting the demand for international and domestic tourism is a key goal for tourism industry leaders. The purpose of this study is to present more appropriate models for forecasting the demand for tourism in Vietnam. The authors apply GM (1, 1), Verhulst, DGM (1, 1) and DGM (2, 1) to test which concise prediction models can improve the ability to predict the number of tourists visiting this country. In order to guarantee the accuracy of forecasting process, data cover in the period from 2005 through 2013 and are obtained from the official website of VNATR “Vietnam National Administration of Tourism” report. The MAPE, MSE, RMSE and MAD are used to compare the various forecasting models results. This thesis helps to figure out the suitable models used for forecasting the trend of Vietnamese tourism. Key findings indicate that the optimal value of GM (1, 1), Verhulst, DGM (1, 1) can enhance the forecasting results perfectly with minimum predicted errors. In the case of the tourism revenue, using the Verhulst model is evidently better than the others. For the prediction of international and domestic tourists the application of Verhulst and DGM (1, 1) is well done. For visitors coming from specific countries (i.e. China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and America), GM (1, 1), Verhulst, DGM (1, 1) and DGM (2, 1) perform excellently. The results also pointed out that the tourism demands in Vietnam are growing rapidly, thus the governments must be well-prepared for tourism industry and enhance relative fundamental construction for tourism markets.