A distance-based modification of spatial interaction model in modelling population movement

• Main Authors: Leong, Yin Yee, 梁穎誼
• Other Authors: 余清祥
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/mbd25k

博士 === 國立政治大學 === 統計學系 === 105 === Population movement encompasses various forms, such as migration, mobility, and commuting. Spatial Interaction Model (SIM) serves as an important tool to calibrate these movements in the sense of macro modelling. One of the important features of this model is that the number of migrants often decays with the distance. However, we found that this is not always the case in practice and the decay pattern may change with distance. In this study, we propose a distanced-based modification to the SIM, via applying the techniques of change-point problem to construct distance functional form. Computer simulation is illustrated to validate the method and the empirical analysis of flow data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), and also England & Wales internal migration data also provides sound evidences to support the proposed approach. Note that the flow data from the NHIRD consists of a sample of about one million people and can be treated as a fine sample representative of Taiwan’s whole population (about 23 million people). Our results show that the modified approach is more adequate than the traditional SIM, especially for describing the movements of suburban areas in Taiwan.