| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 財務金融研究所碩士在職專班 === 105 === This paper mainly discusses the fluctuation of exchange rates on imports and exports under the triangle trade system. The data are from January 2002 to December 2016, and the research method is mainly the vector error correction model. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the real exchange rate, intermediate inputs and outputs, and national income. In the long run, the real exchange rate is positively related to the changes in the intermediate and domestic outputs, but negatively related to the changes in the intermediate inputs. In the short term, the real exchange rate rises has a positive impact to the intermediate output, but the impact of the intermediate input is not consistent with the theoretical expectation. In addition, when the real exchange rate rises, the impact of the domestic output is negative in the beginning, and then appeared positive expansion effect.
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