| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄海洋科技大學 === 航運管理研究所 === 105 === Under the global climate change influence, many ports are threatened. Taiwan is relying on the port as the biggest means of trading. If the port is under the major natural disaster, the economy will surely be affected. Typhoon is the biggest factor in all type of Taiwan's natural disasters. How to reduce damge has become an important issue. Therefore, this study will take Kaohsiung port as the main research object with Bayesian network by fill the expert questionnaire.This study can explore the high risk probability of Kaohsiung port, also reviewed the United States and Taiwan major hazard typhoon affected port events.
In this paper, use the Bayesian network analysis and literature collation. The results of this study follows: (1) Collecting the relevant domestic and foreign literature, construct the vulnerability index of typhoon disaster in Kaohsiung port. (2) The high risk probability of the typhoon disaster in Kaohsiung port is 64% by using the Bayesian network. (3) The management judge, important facilities protection and precautions against typhoon can reduce the high risk probability. The study also simulation analysis four aspects of the vulnerability to compared high risk probability changes.The result showing that the precautions against typhoon is the most important factor. (4) Through the sensitivity analysis, the Morandi typhoon in 2006 is taken as an example to adjust the probability of related indexes. Kaohsiung port high risk probability is 70%.
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