| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立屏東大學 === 應用數學系碩士班 === 106 === Since the baseball confirmed returns the Olympic Games, it has raised a baseball unrest once more, especially has many important international sports events in 2017, and mentioned the professional movement, besides the appreciation stimulation competition, the movement lottery ticket is may forecast the competition victory and defeat, extra obtains the lottery prize money the method.
Forecasts the Professional baseball competition result the object for the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 2017 the season (CPBL 28 years) four teams, we will use three explanation variable processing mode, that is batting score and pitching score, the division of batting score and pitching score, and the subtraction of batting score and pitching score, and establish the Logistic regression model for 4 times (20% for the season, 40% for the season, 70% for the season, 90% for the season), then predict and verify the last 10 games by 6 methods of prediction.
Use Wald test to choose the explanation variable, and compare the 70% and 90% for the season with 20% and 40% for the bottom season, and also control the 3 explanation variable for the previous game to all season and the previous season.
The research result is that the highest average predicted success rate is 70%,72.5% and 67.5% for 3 explanation variable to predict the 6 methods of prediction, in which 70% and 90% for all season is better than 20% and 40% for bottom season, but the preceding processing mode forecast success ratio not necessarily is also better than these three explanation variable processing mode; Forecast the way is previous time fights by two rows when the data does for the explanation variable, the forecast success ratio in three explanation variable processing mode all is best; selects into the variable aspect, contained next half Ji Jiqian altogether to select into 22 kind of variables, in which highest three has RBI,ERA and SO per bat.
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