The Analysis of Factors Affecting Maize Import Dependency in Indonesia

• Main Authors: Fransisca Esha Angela, 方艾沙
• Other Authors: Ke-Chung Peng
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/55u2p3

碩士 === 國立屏東科技大學 === 農企業管理國際碩士學位學程 === 105 === Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture design UPSUS PAJALE programs since 2014 to improve the performance of some staple food in Indonesia, including maize. But after two years program have implemented, local maize still not shows significant performance changes. Indonesia's political and trade conditions require receiving imported maize. This condition poses a threat to local maize because local maize has not had a good performance in the domestic maize market and late these day local maize has to compete with imported maize. These research purposes are: 1) to know maize production, consumption, and price in Indonesia; 2) to analyze the competitiveness of local and import maize in Indonesia; and 3) to define the factors that affect import maize dependency in Indonesia. This research used secondary data from the years of 1996 - 2015, which includes land area data, production data, import data, and maize price data. In addition, this study also used data from the largest importer country of maize in Indonesia. There are three methods used in this research, they are: 1) Trade Specialization Index to know competitive advantages of Indonesian maize compare with importer country; 2) Import Dependency Ratio to know comparative advantages of maize in Indonesia; 3) VECM to define the factors that affect import maize dependency. The competitiveness analysis of maize in Indonesia was done with competitive advantage and comparative advantage. Based on competitive advantage result, show that Indonesian maize has lower competitiveness than imported maize from Brazil, India, Argentina, and America. Late this year, there is no difference between Indonesia and China TSI for maize. Based on comparative advantage result, show that IDR of maize in Indonesia quite low because it’s about 6% - 11% out of 100%. In short term there are some variables affect maize import dependency in Indonesia, they are Cropping area (t-2), Real exchange rate (t-2), and World price (t-2). In long term there are some variables affect maize import dependency in Indonesia, they are Cropping area (t-1), Real exchange rate (t-1), and World price (t-1). Based on IRF result, IDR response to cropping area and real exchange rate shocks negatively but for world price shocks, IDR gives a positive response. Overall endogenous variables such as cropping area, real exchange rate, and world price are predicted to affect IDR by 4% and 1%, while the rest is influenced by the variable itself.