The impact of Monetary Policy on Real Estate Market

• Main Authors: CHEN, YING-JU, 陳映儒
• Other Authors: LEE, MEI-HSING
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/xy62ej

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 統計學系 === 105 === With the rapid development on Taipei real estate market, housing price rose sharply. Depart from past literature, this study clearly divides Monetary Policy into three di-mensions: Money supply, one-year deposit rate, consumer housing loan amount. The analysis period is the first quarter of 1991 to the second quarter of 2016, then applies Cointegration analysis and VECM to further explore the factors that may contribute to Taipei’s housing price. The factors include M2 broad money supply, one-year de-posit rate, consumer housing loan, consumer price index, gross domestic product and national income. In addition, Granger causality test is employed to examine the lead/lag relationship between real estate market and the variables. The empirical result shows that interest rates are negatively related to Taipei’s housing price. And money supply, consumer price index, real gross domestic product, national disposable income are positively related to Taipei’s housing price. According to the results of Granger causality tests, M2 money supply and interest rates will Granger one-way impact of Taipei’s housing prices. Furthermore, consumer housing loan amount will Granger impact of Taipei’s housing transaction volume, which means that monetary policy does affect the real estate market in Taipei.