A Study on the Price Movement of Alumni Prices

• Main Authors: TSO,TZU-CHIEN, 卓子見
• Other Authors: HUANG, KAI-I
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/vmcnm6

碩士 === 東海大學 === 高階經營管理碩士在職專班 === 105 === This study shows the major economic indicators which impact the price movement of international alumni price in different levels or facts, to understand the international economic situation through related indicators, and to build the forecast model of international alumni price in order to provide company with purchase reference. This study begins with descriptive statics and causality test to understand the economic indicators that affect the price of aluminum raw material, observe the interaction between each other. Further, using the regression analysis to figure out the key economic indicators, and establish the determination variables which predict the main price trend of international aluminum raw materials. The result of empirical analysis shows the key factors which affect the change of international alumni price are supply chain of aluminum, future price of aluminum, global oil price, US dollar index, industrial production, and price index. Moreover, future price of aluminum has the most impact on short-term changes, followed by supply of aluminum; movement of long-term international alumni price would be affected by global oil price, US dollar index, industrial production and price index. In addition, the results of analyzing the impact of alumni price are different based on different levels or facts. From supply perspective, international alumni price has negative correlation with supply and demand. After 2008, the demand increased in China due to expansion, but since the supply amount in the meanwhile was still larger than the demand amount which causing the price going in negative way. From demand perspective, international alumni price has positive correlation with economic development in global major countries, which leads the growth of alumni demand and makes the international alumni price increases. From cost perspective, international alumni price has positive correlation with global oil price in the short term, but it has negative correlation in the long term, because when the global oil price increases, not only reflects the economic development but also includes the future price increases. From currency perspective, US dollar index has the negative correlation with global oil price, which represents the losses caused by the changes in exchange rate within trade and would result in the change of alumni price. From the speculation perspective, international alumni price is highly relevant to 3-month future prices of aluminum in London Metal Exchange (LME), and this describes the efficiency of using as prediction, as well as international alumni price has characteristic of price-finding.