Estimation and Prediction for Mortality Rate using Bernstein Polynomials
碩士 === 中原大學 === 應用數學研究所 === 106 === In this study, the two-dimensional Bernstein polynomials are used to describe and predict mortality rates for the some particular years and age groups that we are interested in. We mainly use the shape-restricted two-dimensional Bernstein polynomials to build a ma...
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| Format: | Others |
| Language: | zh-TW |
| Published: |
2018
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| Online Access: | http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/636t9b |
| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 應用數學研究所 === 106 === In this study, the two-dimensional Bernstein polynomials are used to describe and predict mortality rates for the some particular years and age groups that we are interested in. We mainly use the shape-restricted two-dimensional Bernstein polynomials to build a mathematical model and use the simulated annealing algorithm to find the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters, in order to estimate and predict the mortality rate for the some particular years and age groups that we are interested in. We use the analysis of the simulated datasets and real data examples to examine the effectiveness of our method by comparing the existing methods, the P-spline smoothing method and the Lee-Carter model. The Swedish mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (http://www.mortality.org/) are illustrated in the analysis of the real data examples.
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