A Study on the Relationship between 95 Unleaded Gasoline Price, Interional Oil Price, and Exchage Rate

• Main Authors: Li,Ming-Hua, 李明樺
• Other Authors: Chang,Jui-Fang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/uh726g

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 國際企業系碩士在職專班 === 106 === Fuel oil has long been an indispensable and necessary energy source In daily life. In particular, the ups and downs of gasoline and diesel,not only affect the cost of transportation for all people, but also directly affect the fluctuation of the entire price. This study intends to conduct research on the 95 unleaded gasoline with the largest amount of domestic transportation fuel. Use the time series method includes unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction model, and granger casualty test to target the domestic unlead gasoline fuel prices, the IMF crude oil index, the IMF's average oil price index, and the three major crude oil indexes (Brent, Dubai, WTI) and USD exchange rate of NTD for correlation research. The empirical results show that： 1.The international oil price, the exchange rate of the USD to the NTD, and the domestic 95 oil price are all non-steady-state data, and there is no time trend. 2.The above research data have a co-integration relationship and can achieve a long-term equilibrium relationship. 3.The domestic 95 unleaded petrol prices are affected by six factors including the IMF crude oil index, the IMF's average oil price index, the three major crude oil indexes(Brent、Dubai、WTI). 4.The USD exchange rate is directly affects by the oil price indices. 5.The impact response time between various research factors is approximately four to seven periods.