An Analysis of Influences of Demographic Characteristics on Housing Prices

• Main Authors: Yeh, Fang-Shiou, 葉芳秀
• Other Authors: 陳明吉
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/g9u7tg

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 財務管理學系 === 106 === The objective of this article is to investigate the relationship between demographics characteristics and housing prices of Taiwan metropolis. As well as to figure out the method of control housing prices by realizing the most effective factor of influencing housing prices and making the perdition of the future price trend. This assignment will first classify the demographics factors into four types of influence – living standard, demographics structure, marriage, and immigration. It will then observe the result by inputting each quarterly data between 2001 to 2016 into natural logarithm function, and then place these natural logarithms into unit root test to make sure all variables are stationary. Eventually, using regression method to analyze the relation between demographics characteristics factors and housing prices in Taipei city, New Taipei city, Taoyuan city, Hsinchu city, Taichung city and Kaohsiung city, looking Consumer Price Index, the average interest rate within the big 5 banks, and real per capita national income as the factor of macroeconomics, and making this factor as control variable to study the influence between fixed macroeconomics and housing prices. The result shows that the influences of demographics characteristics on the northern part of Taiwan is more significant than the southern part. Besides, living standard is the most influential factor. That means the demand really driven housing prices. When it comes to immigration effect, the number of people moving in will raise the housing prices in Taipei City. In Taoyuan city, the old-aged dependency ratio has negative relation between housing prices which is because when the ratio of younger generation and middle-aged population become lower, that makes the housing demand decrease and housing prices decline. It is inferred that long-term housing prices will keep decreasing and the real estate market is possible to suffer market crash.