Project Portfolio Selection Considering Uncertainty Stochastic Dominance Based on Fuzzy Ranking

• Main Authors: Yang-Tai Chou, 周暘泰
• Other Authors: Liangchuan Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ymph88

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 科技管理研究所 === 106 === This paper proposes a comprehensive method based on the literature of project portfolio selection and fuzzy theory for considering both the monetary and non-monetary aspects of a project. We attempt to fill the gap of involving all key participants evaluate project portfolio objectively and select the preferred ones. Using fuzzy theory and stochastic dominance (SD), managers can identify key uncertainty factors and estimate value in managing project portfolios. The rule for ranking project portfolios is modified from the traditional Mean-Variance (MV) approach, which is the maximum expected value in the triangular fuzzy number and minimum fuzzy coefficient variance. We test our method with data from 5 projects to demonstrate its practical application. We improved on existing methods in three ways: (1) We alleviate the subjective bias in risk assessment in estimating the expected value hidden in the project portfolio. (2) The key uncertainty factors can be identified through a top-down management process in most hierarchical organizational structures. (3) Adding the stochastic dominance rule to the fuzzy ranking process is more efficient for project portfolio selection.