| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 都市計劃學系 === 106 === The impact of sea level rise on society and the environment is one of the major challenge in the 21st century. In particular, coastal urban zones are potential high flood risk areas, so the disaster-oriented land use and management programs are one of the important issues in the future. Consequently, this study conducts Cellular Automata (CA)based on Markov Chain Analysis to combine the land use change model with the flood risk caused by the sea level rise and to further explore the spatial distribution and change.
Our study area is the coastal zones of Kaohsiung. First of all, through flood risk assessment to understand the high-flood risk hotspots in Kaohsiung City. It mainly focus on the northeast of Kaohsiung City in the area of Qieding Dist., Kaohsiung downtown, and the southern area of Linyuan Dist.. Second, using the land use survey data of 2006 and 2014 are used to predict the land use in the study area of 2030. The scenario of this study was set to include the flood risk and the nature development scenario that excluded flood risk. The simulation results show that the two scenarios display coastal areas in downtown Kaohsiung are still highly threatened by the potential impact of sea level rise because of the high potential development and the ideal development location of the built environment. In addition, through statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis, the simulation of flood risk may affect the choice and configuration of resident/commerce land use and industrial land use. Overall, Through the dynamic simulation evaluation of this study, we can understand the trends and changes of future land use patterns, and we will provide the strategy and adjustment for spatial planning under climate change.
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