| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 都市計劃學系 === 106 === Traveling has been becoming more convenient with accessibility, affordability, and efficiency enhanced by the rapid development of transportation systems, aggravating the spread of contagious diseases. As an example, dengue fever, of which the prevention strategy has been a main challenge for the Taiwan government, has again drawn attentions after Tainan City suffered the most severe epidemic for decades in 2015.
Dengue fever is transmitted to human through the bite of mosquitoes infected with dengue virus. However, compared to the limited dispersal distance of mosquitoes, human hosts have greater mobility that is highly correlated with the travel characteristics, rendering travel distance as a key factor affecting the diffusion of dengue fever. In addition, dengue fever has a complex transmission mechanism involving transport networks, weather, socioeconomic status, demographic, and land-use patterns, which should all be taken into consideration in modeling the diffusion of this disease.
Prior to the epidemic model development based on binomial distribution, factors related to dengue fever diffusion in the literature were reviewed and highly correlated factors were analyzed using the data from the 2015 outbreak. This model includes two types of diffusion patterns, i.e. relocation diffusion and expansion diffusion, and was calibrated using Bayesian statistics the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The results show that the spread of dengue fever is highly correlated with the population movement, average temperature, precipitation and traffic land-use ratio, as the model is well fitted to the data.
|
|---|
