The Study on Correlation between Taiwan's Business Cycles and Sales of Automotive Sales Volume and Auto Insurance Premium Income

• Main Authors: I-Wei Chen, 陳懿薇
• Other Authors: Chao-Shin Chiao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/35a6p3

碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 管理學院高階經營管理碩士在職專班 === 106 === The purpose of this study is to explore the lead-lag relations between the top five auto insurance companies insurance premium income and business cycles. This paper applies "Automotive Sales Volume" and "Auto Insurance Premium Income " compiled by the Census and Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs from January 1997 to December, 2016, totaling 240 months. To compare them with Taiwan's business cycles, we apply the business indicators in Taiwan published by the National Development Council and the TEJ as well as the highest and lowest points of the stock market index. The results of the research are as follows: First, the Automotive Sales Volume leads the Auto Insurance Premium Income, which implies that Automotive Sales Volume can provide business owners with a good indicator. Second, the gap between the revenues of the Automotive Sales Volume and Auto Insurance Premium Income significantly increases around the lows of the market. This indicates that the Auto Insurance Premium Income responds more rapidly to the Automotive Sales Volume. Third, the Auto Insurance Premium Income is less volatile over the peaks and lows of the market as well as business cycles than the Automotive Sales Volume. This indicates that the Auto Insurance Premium Income is affected less by the market and business cycles than the Automotive Sales Volume.