| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 財務管理系碩士專班 === 106 === In order to compete with European and American countries, emerging markets countries have signed various regional trading agreements to promote investment, enhance economic and technological cooperation, and eliminate tariff barriers in recent years, such as the well-known Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Free Trade Agreements, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership received attention from the global media recently. These agreements were attended by countries producing materials that can stimulate the world economic situation. Due to the market bearish and the economy sluggish, the low interest rates and Quantitative easing monetary policies prompted various highly leveraged Derived products flood the international market, and hot money pursuing high profits also quickly flows into emerging markets. This paper explores the relationship of the rapid rise of emerging markets in recent years through the fluctuation of the US dollar index and material prices.
This article focuses on the impact of the price fluctuations of gold spot price, petroleum price in West Texas, and the U.S. dollar index on the emerging markets index from January 3, 2003 to December 31, 2017, and the relevance of each other to obtain future investment. The conclusions show that there is a significant positive correlation between the long-term price fluctuations of emerging markets index and crude oil prices. The long-term price fluctuations of the US dollar index have a negative impact on emerging markets index and the short-term fluctuations have same impact on emerging markets index. Besides, the short-term gold price fluctuations and long-term gold price fluctuations both have a positive impact on emerging markets index. Since the general investment public will not be able to significantly change the investment target daily, this paper considers the impact of long-term price fluctuations to be of reference value.
In the short-term, the emerging markets index is affected negatively by the US dollar index of the first one periods and the first two periods. When the US dollar index rises, the emerging markets index will go down. The emerging markets index will be positively affected by the gold price of the first two periods. The gold price goes up, the emerging markets index also rides up. The crude oil price has no effects with the emerging markets index. In the long-term, emerging markets index will be positively affected by the first two period of gold prices and negatively affected by the US dollar index of the previous two periods, The crude oil price doesn`t have effects with the emerging markets index.
Although the emerging markets cover a total of five countries on three continents, this paper only examines the relationship between the overall emerging markets and materials. Therefore, the article is suggested that subsequent studies can target specific regions or countries to confirm the degree of influence or relationship between them.
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