The Intertemporal Comparison and Prediction of Taiwan Area:Unmarried Persons’Availability Index in 2000、2005、2010、2015、2030

• Main Authors: KU,PEI-HUA, 古佩樺
• Other Authors: Chang,Jung-Fu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/4vn6n2

碩士 === 國立臺北教育大學 === 社會與區域發展學系碩士班 === 106 === The proportion of late first marriage age and unmarried population has increased year by year .In recent years, the age of first marriage in Taiwan has been continuously delayed and the rate of unmarried population has increased. In order to understand the difference of mate selection opportunity of unmarried men and women of all age，this thesis calculation and estimation of "Unmarried Persons' Availability Index" of men and women in Taiwan by using demographic statistics 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 of Department of Household Registration, Ministry of Interior and the estimated 2030 demographic statistics of National Development Council. Furthermore, this thesis assess and compare the mate selection opportunity of unmarried men and women recent in Taiwan. The results of the thesis are：（1）The "Unmarried Persons'Availability Index" of women is almost higher than the past 15 years after the age of 26, which means that the mate selection opportunity of women is better than in the past. However, it gradually declines after the peak of the mate (about 25 to 33 years old). In contrast, although men's mate selection opportunity is lower than in the past few years, they still rise slowly. This means that men’s mate selection opportunity is less likely to be reduced by age.（2）Women's highest peak of "Unmarried Persons'Availability Index" in 2015 is 26 years old, but the first marriage age is 30 years old. Women miss the best time to choose a spouse. It also means that women are missing the age of high mate selection opportunity. Instead, they begin to look for suitable marriages at age of low mate selection opportunity, indicating that they are easy to fall into "Miss Mating Timing" (Jung-Fu Chang eds., 2015). In the future, women may be more likely to face the dilemma of "Miss Mating Timing".（3）After comprehensively compare the "Unmarried Persons'Availability Index" in 2000, 2015 and 2030, we know that the "Unmarried Persons'Availability Index" and marriage rate in Taiwan of men are both gradually decline. In contrast, the age of high "Unmarried Persons'Availability Index" of women is continuously delayed, it match with the trend of late marriage. However, it is easy for women to miss the best mate selection age, and "Unmarried Persons'Availability Index" of women declined rapidly after the peak period.（4）The "Unmarried Persons'Availability Index" of 2030 shows that if the late mate chooses happen, the mate selection opportunity of men increase and the mate selection opportunity of women decline. If the marriage is delayed, the opposite trend will be formed for men and women. We are looking forward to that the government can further explore this aspect. It can slow down the trend of late marriage or unmarried in Taiwan and can indirectly slow down the phenomenon of Taiwan's declining birth.