The Analysis of the Relationship Among Exchange Rate, Trade and Capital Flow

• Main Authors: SONG, YI-ZHEN, 宋怡真
• Other Authors: CHEN, WEN-DEN
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/j7c3n9

碩士 === 東海大學 === 經濟系 === 106 === International trades are essential economic activities in Taiwanese economy; especially exports and imports occupy a large proportion of our GDP. This research uses the balance of payment to evaluate the market efficiency of foreign exchange rates. We concentrate on the manipulation by the central bank in foreign exchange market. Through balance of payment, we investigate the relationship among capital mobility, foreign exchange rates, exports and imports, interest rates. We use Johansen cointegration to their long run relations. Based on the empirical data, we have three concluding remarks: (i) first, the current account and the exchange rate have large influence on the exchange rate, and the exchange rate is less affected by the current account. (ii) Secondly, the relationship between capital outflow and exchange rate is correlation. (iii) Finally, the exchange rate in the long-term relationship is difficult to converge, indicating that the exchange rate does not follow the market mechanism.