| Summary: | 碩士 === 真理大學 === 財務與精算學系碩士班 === 107 === “Land is property” is the traditional concept of Chinese society, this shows that the real estate plays an important role in career and financial plans of Chinese. In recent year, the price of house has become higher and higher, and the problems of economic and society environment come out one after the other, but people still don’t have a consistent view yet. Although we can’t stop the increasing of the house prices, but we can still find out the regularity of price fluctuation. As a result, it’s important to understand the indicators of price fluctuation and grasp it in advance.
In this research, the housing index of “The Cathay Real Estate Indicators Report” from 2000 first season to 2017 second season was collected and translated it into house prices, than investigate the relationship between the prices and six metropolis in Taiwan by using vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality test. Moreover, analyzing the short-term and long-term impacts of the population density, rough marriage rate, net migration rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate and unemployment rate in six metropolis by using panel VAR analysis and impulse response function. Than deduce leading indicators of price which can grasp the critical timing of house selling.
The results showed that the two-way causality relationship exist between Taipei to New Taipei City and Taichung to Kaohsiung, and no causality relationship between Tainan to Kaohsiung. The one way leading relationship exist among New Taipei City to Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung; Taipei to Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung; Taoyuan to Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung; Kaohsiung to Taichung. In six metropolis, the key factors are crude birth rate and unemployment rate. House prices have long-term negative effect to birth rate and short-term negative effect to unemployment rate.
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