Study of Environmental Analysis and Prediction of Northwestern Typhoon-Based on 2018 Maria Typhoon

• Main Authors: LEE,TZU-YI, 李子儀
• Other Authors: YANG,HORNG-YU
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/p67v2b

碩士 === 中華科技大學 === 土木防災與管理碩士班 === 107 === Northwestern typhoon, deriving from Eastern Taiwan with the center westward through the sea area between Keelung and Pengjia Islet, never landed or just sideswiped Northern Taiwan, always generates Northwestern wind with environmental disasters. There is no direct observational statistics since the mode of typhoon almost evolves in the ocean nor the data of the rainfall triggered by the mode; which hardens the disaster prevention. Taiwan has extreme sophisticated terrain caused by the transverse Central Range from south to north; which leads the unpredictable typhoon route, relevant rainfall, and position as well. Grabbing the rainfall mechanism of spatial and temporal distribution, this paper applies 2018 Typhoon Maria, from alarm to the end of invasion, as research to check influence by typhoon route and strength through numerical mode for Taiwan terrain and cloud microphysics parameterization inside the mode. This research employs both of the initial and side storm structures with data from National Center of Environmental Prediction Center/Final analysis data (NCEP/FNL); which applies height field, temperature field, and other meteorological parameters as the prime field in order to establish weather research and forecasting model (WRF). The simulation of typhoon route indicates that the terrain still influence the offset vector of typhoon; which causes the average 850-300 hPa deep-layer flow of Southwestern flow field with formation of Southeast-Northwest large-scale field flow for typhoon, leading typhoon center to Northwestern side. The forecasted rainfall simulation of climate timeline (CTL) shows the asymmetric mode while with storm circle shrouded in Taiwan; whose Southern side forms a strong precipitation area affecting the North-central part of Taiwan, and activates positive correlation between rainfall and terrain height, affecting by the strong convective typhoon circulation and terrain effect, among mountains with orographic lifting precipitation as well.