The Study on the Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Domestic Banks’ Loans to SMEs

• Main Authors: CHEN, HUNG-YU, 陳泓予
• Other Authors: LIN, YIH-BEY
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/cjtgtn

博士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 企業管理系台灣產業策略發展博士班 === 107 === The purposes of this study are to explore the impacts of macroeconomic factors on domestic banks’ loans to SMEs, and forecast, respectively, the amounts of domestic banks’ loans to SMEs in northern, central and southern Taiwan for the next two years (2019, 2020). Grey relational analysis and grey forecasting model GM(1,1) are applied to conduct empirical studies. The results show that whether before or after the 2008 financial crisis, and whether in northern, central or southern Taiwan, “exchange rate”and“annual rate of interest”are the most crucial macroeconomic factors affecting the amounts of domestic banks’ loans to SMEs. In addition, we also find that the market of domestic banks’ loans to SMEs in Taiwan will continues to expand in the future. The estimated the amounts of domestic banks’ loans to SMEs will increase to more than NT $7 trillion in 2020 in Taiwan. Annual growth rate of SME loans in domestic banks in northern Taiwan will be rapidly increasing and higher than it in the overall market. In southern Taiwan, the annual growth rate of domestic banks’ loans to SMEs will be the lowest among the three regions. The above results not only fill to the theoretical gap, but also provide reference information for the development strategy of banking industry in Taiwan.