Research of Credit Risk Prediction in Hong Kong

• Main Authors: Lin, Pei-Wu, 林霈吾
• Other Authors: 林宛瑩
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/sfn9wr

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 會計學系 === 107 === Due to the high-speed of growth in China, the hot money of foreign investors pours in and the China stock market become popular in Asian. However, the weakness in laws and regulations make it risky to invest in this market. In contrast to China, the stable financial environment and relatively sound legal systems make Hong Kong a better choice for foreign companies and investors. These cash flows bring prosperity to Hong Kong, and increase the instability and the needs of credit risk prediction model in the whole market at the same time. In order to realize the factors of financial distress for Hong Kong listed company, I select some listed company during 2008-2017 as the samples. By taking the financial environment into account, I determine the definitions of distress. Then, I use logistic regression model, probit model and multiple discriminant analysis model to test the three different kinds of variables and figure out which are significant to distress prediction. The result shows that the accuracy of multiple discriminant analysis model in distress company can up to 66.25 percent.