The Impact of Taiwan’s Population Structure Change on Real Estate Prices

• Main Authors: CHENG,FU-JEN, 鄭富仁
• Other Authors: TSAI,HSIU-JUNG
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/kmh4d6

碩士 === 國立高雄科技大學 === 財務管理系 === 107 === The ratio of self-owned residences of people in Taiwan is 85 percent. Therefore, the purchase of real estate has become the biggest expenditure in a lifetime. But, the factors that influence housing price are quite complex and numerous. In foreign literature, there are many articles explaining the impact of demographic changes on the real estate market. After the Second World War, the baby boomers have gradually entered the retirement age, and the changes in the demand for home purchases caused by this group are discussed. At present, Taiwan is facing an imminent population aging and the phenomenon of younger generation. However, the prices of the main six cities in Taiwan are still high. There seems to be no clear indicators of seeing the hidden dangers caused by the demographic changes in housing prices. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to observe the situation of major metropolitan areas in Taiwan and to explore the impact of demographic changes on Taiwan's real estate prices. This study collects data on real estate price index and population-related changes from 2002 to 2018. In terms of being interpreted, it is the Sinyi Realty Inc. price index representing the pre-owned house market and the Cathay Real Estate price index representing the presold house market. The interpretation of the change has two major blocks, including the overall economic and population changes. This study used the least square method (OLS method) for regression analysis. The result of the demonstration is the house price will affect the ratio of support to the old and the ratio of the support to the young. In recent years, Taiwan’s support for the elderly has turned into a turning point. The end of the demographic dividend also corresponds to the stagnation of economic growth and the decline of the real estate market. Therefore, this study believes that the impact of demographic changes on Taiwan's future real estate market is a problem we need to face squarely.