Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan
碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 107 === We use Grey theory GM(l,l）model and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, to construct the forecasting model of tourism demand in Japan.We use monthly data of the number of foreign visitors to Japan from 1975 to 2015, to forecast the...
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Others |
| Language: | zh-TW |
| Published: |
2019
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| Online Access: | http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/znma35 |
| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 107 === We use Grey theory GM(l,l）model and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, to construct the forecasting model of tourism demand in Japan.We use monthly data of the number of foreign visitors to Japan from 1975 to 2015, to forecast the tourism demand for the years of 2016 and 2017.The results from our study show that the forecasts of SARIMA model is more accurate than those of GM(l,l）model, judging from both Root Mean Square Percentaeg Error (RMSPE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE).
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