Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan

Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 107 === We use Grey theory GM(l,l）model and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, to construct the forecasting model of tourism demand in Japan.We use monthly data of the number of foreign visitors to Japan from 1975 to 2015, to forecast the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Takayuki Higuchi, 樋口隆行
Other Authors: 邱鳳臨
Format: Others
Language:zh-TW
Published: 2019
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/znma35
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spelling ndltd-TW-107NTU050110792019-11-21T05:34:27Z http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/znma35 Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan 日本旅遊需求預測之分析 Takayuki Higuchi 樋口隆行 碩士 國立臺灣大學 國家發展研究所 107 We use Grey theory GM(l,l）model and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, to construct the forecasting model of tourism demand in Japan.We use monthly data of the number of foreign visitors to Japan from 1975 to 2015, to forecast the tourism demand for the years of 2016 and 2017.The results from our study show that the forecasts of SARIMA model is more accurate than those of GM(l,l）model, judging from both Root Mean Square Percentaeg Error (RMSPE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE). 邱鳳臨 2019 學位論文 ; thesis 49 zh-TW
collection NDLTD
language zh-TW
format Others
sources NDLTD
description 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 107 === We use Grey theory GM(l,l）model and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, to construct the forecasting model of tourism demand in Japan.We use monthly data of the number of foreign visitors to Japan from 1975 to 2015, to forecast the tourism demand for the years of 2016 and 2017.The results from our study show that the forecasts of SARIMA model is more accurate than those of GM(l,l）model, judging from both Root Mean Square Percentaeg Error (RMSPE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE).
author2 邱鳳臨
author_facet 邱鳳臨
Takayuki Higuchi
樋口隆行
author Takayuki Higuchi
樋口隆行
spellingShingle Takayuki Higuchi
樋口隆行
Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan
author_sort Takayuki Higuchi
title Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan
title_short Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan
title_full Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan
title_fullStr Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of Tourism Demand Forecasting in Japan
title_sort analysis of tourism demand forecasting in japan
publishDate 2019
url http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/znma35
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AT tōngkǒulóngxíng rìběnlǚyóuxūqiúyùcèzhīfēnxī
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