| Summary: | A spatially explicit forest harvesting and individual-based population simulation
model has been developed. This model was used to assess the response of rare or endangered
forest wildlife to forest harvesting policies and conservation options. A specific focus was on
the examining the efficacy of proposed management options for the northern spotted owl
population in British Columbia. The forest harvest simulation component was used to
construct spatial and temporal patterns of logging activities in the Fraser and Soo timber
supply areas. Forest simulations were based on a forest inventory database of 25-ha
resolution, and simulated harvests were subject to constraints imposed by the Forest Practices
Code and wildlife conservation options. The delineation of breeding territories over this
database was done using a submodel that maps likely territory areas following geographic
constraints of the landscape, resulting in a "mosaic" of variously shaped territories. This
allowed for aggregation of the finer scale forest-state data into simple indices of habitat
quality for owls. These indices were updated on a yearly basis as the forest either aged or
was harvested. The individual-based population simulator used "coarser" territory/habitat
maps to simulate dispersal, location and fates of individual female owls (i.e., breeding pairs).
Simulations suggest that a major limiting factor is the low survival rate of dispersing juvenile
owls. The proposed management plans do not adequately address this problem and may, in
fact, be detrimental to the owl population. These small conservation areas increase logging
pressure on the surrounding areas. As a result, juveniles are forced to disperse from their
natal habitats into marginal habitats where the risk of mortality is increased. Reduction in the
annual allowable cut is more important than any proposed configuration of Spotted Owl
Conservation Areas. === Science, Faculty of === Zoology, Department of === Graduate
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