Do crude oil price changes affect economic growth of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh? : A multivariate time series analysis

• Main Author: Akram, Muhammad
• Format: Others
• Language: English
• Published: Högskolan Dalarna, Nationalekonomi 2012
• Subjects: Oil price shocks; Economic growth; Vector Autoregressive; Impulse response function; Wald Granger causality test
• Online Access: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-10723

This paper analyzes empirically the effect of crude oil price change on the economic growth of Indian-Subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh). We use a multivariate Vector Autoregressive analysis followed by Wald Granger causality test and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Wald Granger causality test results show that only India’s economic growth is significantly affected when crude oil price decreases. Impact of crude oil price increase is insignificantly negative for all three countries during first year. In second year, impact is negative but smaller than first year for India, negative but larger for Bangladesh and positive for Pakistan.