Exchange rate volatility : How the Swedish export is influenced

• Main Author: Backman, Mikaela
• Format: Others
• Language: English
• Published: Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Nationalekonomi 2006
• Subjects: Exchange rate; exchange rate volatility; export; Economics; Nationalekonomi
• Online Access: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-571

The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether the exchange rate volatility has an impact on Swedish exports. This relationship has been tested in several studies but no consistent result has been found. It is therefore an interesting subject to investigate further and it has not been thoroughly tested for Sweden using aggregated data. Since the exchange rate vola-tility may have an effect on exports, and therefore on the whole economy, the effect can support a certain exchange rate regime. All the data used in this thesis is based on the ag-gregated data for Sweden and the Euro zone between the years 1993 and 2006. The method chosen is a statistical analysis using regressions. Three variables other than ex-change rate volatility were included when conducting the regressions explaining Swedish exports and these are: the real effective exchange rate index, the industrial production in Sweden (“push” factor) and the import from the Euro Zone (“pull” factor). The overall conclusion found was that the industrial production in Sweden, the real effective exchange rate index, the time and lagged values of the export influence the export. There was no evi-dence found that the exchange rate volatility influences the exports for Sweden.