Riskpremien, vad ska man tro? : En studie med facit i hand

• Main Authors: Lindén, Markus, Särnblom, Stellan
• Format: Others
• Language: Swedish
• Published: Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för ekonomi och företagande 2005
• Subjects: Business studies; risk; risk premium; equity risk premium; market risk premium; CAPM; risk premium ex post; risk premium ex ante; implied risk premium; forward looking risk premium; Swedish risk premium; Företagsekonomi; riskpremie; historisk riskpremie; framåtblickande riskpremie
• Online Access: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-149

The market risk premium is one of the most important parameters in finance. Its value and the ways to calculate a risk premium for the market is a widely debated subject. This thesis examines numerous ways of calculating a risk premium for the Swedish market with regard to how good an estimation they make of a real risk premium. Estimations based on historical periods ranging from 20 to 85 years is calculated as well as a premium based on forward-looking estimates. The real risk premium is solved out for a selection of companies and an index with the help of CAPM. An examination of these estimates leads to the conclusion that historical estimates of a risk premium may be outdated. The implication of this is that more effort should be put into examining a risk premium based on forward-looking estimates. In this context a thorough analysis of fundamentals should be added into the calculation.