From horse to herd : linking within-host and population level epidemic dynamics

• Main Author: Hamilton, R. B.
• Published: University of Cambridge 2003
• Subjects: 636.089
• Online Access: http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.603617

The ravages of influenza in humans and mammals are well documented and the subject of considerable interest. There is extensive research on influenza infection in small animal models. Less is known of the dynamics of infection in natural hosts, however, research on experimental equine influenza in horses provides an exception. Following an overview of the uses and applications of models at both scales, chapter 2 reviews in detail the biology of equine influenza. Outlining the known pathology and immunology, it presents a picture of the within host viral dynamics using data from experimental equine influenza infections in horses. A model is constructed to capture the within-host dynamics of equine influenza in chapter 3 and is shown to capture the pattern of viral dynamics in both naive and previously exposed hosts. This model of individual disease dynamics is then incorporated into a population framework. It is found that including more biological realism in terms of individually determined disease dynamics does not result in epidemics that differ significantly from those predicted by standard models of influenza dynamics. The infections caused by the morbilliviruses are, like influenza, acute, highly transmissible infections. They provide a number of interesting contrasts, however, particularly in their response to vaccination. The population dynamics of the morbilliviral infections are amongst the most well studied and a series of studies on the pathogenesis of rinderpest infection in cattle provides a good picture of the within-host dynamics of morbilliviral infection. The systemic nature of morbilliviral infections and the pathogenesis of rinderpest is described in chapter 5. A model is constructed to capture its dynamic and is found to describe well the dynamics in naive hosts. In contrast to influenza, incorporating rinderpest dynamics into population models resulted in herd level dynamics that were distinct to those predicted by SEIR models, the longer incubation period of morbilliviruses appearing to have a significant impact.