Metapopulation modelling and spatial analysis for HEG technology in the control of malaria

• Main Author: Dickens, Borame
• Other Authors: Mumford, John; Burt, Austin
• Published: Imperial College London 2014
• Subjects: 333.7
• Online Access: http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.656830

The success of any vector control strategy can be enhanced by onsite analysis and investigation. Combatting malaria, a global disease carried by the vector Anopheles gambiae, has led to the development of novel genetic technologies such as the use of HEG; homing endonuclease genes. This thesis explored the age and stage elements of the vector, building upon current biological understanding and using fitting algorithms with metapopulation matrices to create cohort orientated survival and transition. The environmental forces were analysed alongside this with emphasis on sub-model creation and tool design, employing an array of methods from RBF to satellite classification to couple the local environment and vector. When added, the four potential genetic strategies all demonstrated the ability to suppress a wild type population and even eradicate it, although reinvasion and hotspot population phenomena were reoccurring observations. The movement of the vector was an important factor in control efficiency, which was investigated as a series of different assumptions using wind driven movement and host attraction. Lastly, practical factors such as monitoring and resource distribution within a control project were assessed, which required routing solutions and landscape trapping assessments. This was explored within a framework of Mark-Release-Recapture experiment design that could provide critical information for efficient HEG release strategies.