National and international crisis management : the influence of Libyan intervention on the duration of the Darfur crisis

• Main Author: Hamed, A. A. O.
• Published: Nottingham Trent University 2014
• Subjects: 300
• Online Access: http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.666975

This thesis lies in the broader topic of the impact of external intervention on the interstate crises and conflicts and each one's duration. The purpose of this study is to address the gaps and contradictions in the related literature. This study achieves this purpose by investigating the factors that drive the duration of intrastate conflicts, and understand why and how the duration of such conflicts may be affected by the role of regional third-party interveners. It focuses primarily on understanding the factors underlying the duration of the Darfur crisis in Sudan by analysing the Gaddafi regime’s role in that crisis during the 2003–11 period. This dissertation investigates the association between the long duration of the crisis and Libyan involvement as a major regional third party, as a form of crisis management and as an aspect of the international management of internal conflicts. In doing so a number of questions were asked regarding the causes of the Darfur Crisis and how they impacted on its duration: what were key Libyan national incentives and agenda behind the Gaddafi regime involvement in the Darfur Crisis; how did the scale of Libyan involvement effectiveness relate to the duration of the crisis in addition to Libyan mechanisms and techniques used; and how might the regime change in Libya affect the resolution of the crisis? In this respect, a new theoretical model was developed from the literature to show the theoretical relationship between external/regional third-party intervention in internal conflicts and the likelihood of ending these conflicts in shorter or longer time. Hypotheses were developed and tested based on the relationships identified in the model. It has been found that the causes of the rebellion in Darfur are multiple and complicated, internal and external, political and economic, social and environmental. All these factors have had a significant impact on the eruption of the Darfur Crisis and its continuation. Thus, any attempts to end this crisis without taking all these dimensions into consideration would be quite meaningless and ineffective. Each regional and extra-regional actor significantly sought to guide the violence in the direction which would allow them to gain certain outcomes. The major research finding was that when an external state becomes (in)directly involved with military, economic or diplomatic manoeuvres with a separate agenda that is independent of the motivations of the domestic fighters, parties, in an intrastate conflict that involves ethnic and tribal societies, and where there are multiple opposition armed groups with independent preferences, the likelihood of prolonging the duration of the conflict is greater. These developed hypotheses were tested and explained by utilising a qualitative case study of Libyan involvement in the Darfur Crisis. This thesis then shows how the Libyan intervention (under the Gaddafi regime), exactly in line with our developed model, has prolonged the duration of the Darfur Crisis in Sudan. This thesis demonstrates that the Gaddafi regime has its own agenda, interests, and ambitions in the Darfur region, and its involvement was a key factor in prolonging the duration of the crisis there. The key incentive behind the Libyan strategy of interference in the Darfur crisis over the past decade or so was founded on the basis of Gaddafi’s desire “to gain from the conflict, not to resolve the conflict.” It is found that Gaddafi appears to have played one of the most complex and ambiguous roles in the crisis as it was dual in nature, and at different times showed how the Libyan leadership influenced the parties to the crisis in Darfur in different ways and levels. The originality of this thesis lies in both what is studied and how it is studied. This study simultaneously combines and employs two different types of literature: material focusing on the Crisis’ historical roots, its domestic, regional, and international implications; and distinguished studies relating to the theoretical framework underpinning this thesis that address the impact of external intervention on the internal crises and conflicts and who long they last. This a comprehensive technique of looking at and analysing primary and secondary data is, to the best of our knowledge, new and has not been used in any other study in the literature. In short, this study contributes to our understanding the causes of the outbreak of the Darfur Crisis and factors underlying its continuation, as well as why the crisis has been prolonged for over ten years. Furthermore, the study analyses the strategies variability to advance knowledge in the field of crisis management. This study attempts to address a gap in the literature which, broadly speaking discusses the impact of outside third parties on the expected duration of intrastate conflicts. This study concludes that the adoption of this particular model would increase the probability of domestic and international dissension-makers and mediators of minimising the worst negative effects of external state intervention on the possibility of making internal crises and conflicts last longer. Both the limitations and the implications of this research as well as recommendations are given, along with possible directions for future research.