Safe operating space for development and ecosystem services in Bangladesh

This thesis makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at regional scale by considering the dynamic relationships between social and ecological systems. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB) are analysed to understand the co-e...

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Main Author: Sohel, Md Sarwar
Other Authors: Dearing, John ; Eigenbrod, Felix ; Amoako Johnson, Fiifi
Published: University of Southampton 2017
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.703464
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spelling ndltd-bl.uk-oai-ethos.bl.uk-7034642018-09-05T03:21:05ZSafe operating space for development and ecosystem services in BangladeshSohel, Md SarwarDearing, John ; Eigenbrod, Felix ; Amoako Johnson, Fiifi2017This thesis makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at regional scale by considering the dynamic relationships between social and ecological systems. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB) are analysed to understand the co-evolution (trends, change points, slow and fast variables and drivers) of the Bangladesh delta social-ecological system (SES). The linkages between ES and HWB are analysed using regression models (GAM, linear and logistic) to develop a system model, which is used in a system dynamic (SD) model to demonstrate the safe operating space for the SES in the Bangladesh delta. I employ the model to explore eight ‘what if’ scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawals). Since the 1980s, HWB has improved in the Bangladesh delta mirroring rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, ES have deteriorated since the 1960s in terms of water availability, water quality and land stability in the Bangladesh delta. The overall results suggest that material well-being (basic materials for a good life) have a strong relationship with provisioning services, which in turn, show a weak relationship with the quality of life (security and health). The SD model suggests that the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2 oC temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5 oC temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources and 3) also possibly by revising the global policy (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) to implement at regional scale. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems.333.72University of Southamptonhttps://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.703464https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/404614/Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
collection NDLTD
sources NDLTD
topic 333.72
spellingShingle 333.72
Sohel, Md Sarwar
Safe operating space for development and ecosystem services in Bangladesh
description This thesis makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at regional scale by considering the dynamic relationships between social and ecological systems. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB) are analysed to understand the co-evolution (trends, change points, slow and fast variables and drivers) of the Bangladesh delta social-ecological system (SES). The linkages between ES and HWB are analysed using regression models (GAM, linear and logistic) to develop a system model, which is used in a system dynamic (SD) model to demonstrate the safe operating space for the SES in the Bangladesh delta. I employ the model to explore eight ‘what if’ scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawals). Since the 1980s, HWB has improved in the Bangladesh delta mirroring rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, ES have deteriorated since the 1960s in terms of water availability, water quality and land stability in the Bangladesh delta. The overall results suggest that material well-being (basic materials for a good life) have a strong relationship with provisioning services, which in turn, show a weak relationship with the quality of life (security and health). The SD model suggests that the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2 oC temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5 oC temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources and 3) also possibly by revising the global policy (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) to implement at regional scale. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems.
author2 Dearing, John ; Eigenbrod, Felix ; Amoako Johnson, Fiifi
author_facet Dearing, John ; Eigenbrod, Felix ; Amoako Johnson, Fiifi
Sohel, Md Sarwar
author Sohel, Md Sarwar
author_sort Sohel, Md Sarwar
title Safe operating space for development and ecosystem services in Bangladesh
title_short Safe operating space for development and ecosystem services in Bangladesh
title_full Safe operating space for development and ecosystem services in Bangladesh
title_fullStr Safe operating space for development and ecosystem services in Bangladesh
title_full_unstemmed Safe operating space for development and ecosystem services in Bangladesh
title_sort safe operating space for development and ecosystem services in bangladesh
publisher University of Southampton
publishDate 2017
url https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.703464
work_keys_str_mv AT sohelmdsarwar safeoperatingspacefordevelopmentandecosystemservicesinbangladesh
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