An ARDL modelling approach to international tourism demand in Tanzania

• Main Author: Bashagi, Asimwe
• Other Authors: Muchapondwa, Edwin
• Format: Dissertation
• Language: English
• Published: University of Cape Town 2015
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11874

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 39-42). === The objective of this study was to model the extent of international tourist demand in Tanzania. Thus, the study aimed to investigate the factors affecting international tourism demand. Domestic tourism prices, travel costs, alternative destination tourism prices, exchange rates, world income and taste formation were selected as the main determinants. Dummy variables for the September 2001 USA terror attack and the 1998 Tanzania US embassy bombing were also included in the model. The dummy variables were treated in two different ways, to capture the temporary and permanent effects these events had on tourism demand. The study applied the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to modelling international tourist demand in Tanzania. The findings are consistent with economic theory and with empirical evidence from other studies. The model passed all diagnostic tests. Therefore, the results from this study may be used as a guide in formulating relevant tourism policy for Tanzania.