Modelling the impact of future climate change on subregional wheat production in the Western Cape

• Main Author: Wallace, Michael
• Other Authors: Tadross, Mark
• Format: Doctoral Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: University of Cape Town 2014
• Subjects: Environmental and Geographical Science
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/4816

Includes abstract. === Includes bibliographical references. === Climate change is evident in the Western Cape province of South Africa, particularly in observed trends in average temperatures. Further increases are expected in the future, based on General Circulation Model (GCM) projections, as highlighted in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th (and previous) assessment reports. Whilst it is recognised that rises in temperature coupled with changes in rainfall will impact wheat yields (the province’s dominant field crop), little information exists to guide adaptation planning, especially on the potential range of climate change impacts on dryland winter wheat production. Furthermore the Western Cape is a highly diverse region with regard to geology, soils, topography, climatic influences and agricultural systems. Future climate change therefore, is likely to have different impacts in different zones of the province where wheat is produced. To address this heterogeneity, the APSIM crop model was applied to assess future climate impacts on wheat in 21 relatively homogeneous farming areas (RHFAs) across the province.