Radar based improvements and diagnosis of the convective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model

• Main Author: Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco <1977>
• Other Authors: Rizzi, Rolando
• Format: Doctoral Thesis
• Language: en
• Published: Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna 2013
• Subjects: FIS/06 Fisica per il sistema terra e il mezzo circumterrestre
• Online Access: http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/5441/

In the last few years the resolution of numerical weather prediction (nwp) became higher and higher with the progresses of technology and knowledge. As a consequence, a great number of initial data became fundamental for a correct initialization of the models. The potential of radar observations has long been recognized for improving the initial conditions of high-resolution nwp models, while operational application becomes more frequent. The fact that many nwp centres have recently taken into operations convection-permitting forecast models, many of which assimilate radar data, emphasizes the need for an approach to providing quality information which is needed in order to avoid that radar errors degrade the model's initial conditions and, therefore, its forecasts. Environmental risks can can be related with various causes: meteorological, seismical, hydrological/hydraulic. Flash floods have horizontal dimension of 1-20 Km and can be inserted in mesoscale gamma subscale, this scale can be modeled only with nwp model with the highest resolution as the COSMO-2 model. One of the problems of modeling extreme convective events is related with the atmospheric initial conditions, in fact the scale dimension for the assimilation of atmospheric condition in an high resolution model is about 10 Km, a value too high for a correct representation of convection initial conditions. Assimilation of radar data with his resolution of about of Km every 5 or 10 minutes can be a solution for this problem. In this contribution a pragmatic and empirical approach to deriving a radar data quality description is proposed to be used in radar data assimilation and more specifically for the latent heat nudging (lhn) scheme. Later the the nvective capabilities of the cosmo-2 model are investigated through some case studies. Finally, this work shows some preliminary experiments of coupling of a high resolution meteorological model with an Hydrological one.