Η αποτελεσματικότητα των αραβικών χρηματιστηριακών αγορών : σχέση και διάδραση με τις αναπτυγμένες και αναπτυσσόμενες κεφαλαιαγορές

• Main Author: Zarour, Bashar Abu
• Other Authors: Συριόπουλος, Κωνσταντίνος
• Language: gr
• Published: 2008
• Subjects: Χρηματιστηριακές αγορές; Αραβικές χώρες; 332.642 53; Stock markets; Arab world
• Online Access: http://nemertes.lis.upatras.gr/jspui/handle/10889/1084

- === In an efficient market, prices adjust instantaneously toward their fundamental values; as a consequence prices should always reflect all available information. Here we consider market efficiency for new emerging markets in the Middle East region. Emerging markets are typically characterized by illiquidity, thin trading, and possibly non-linearity in returns generating process. Firstly, we adjust observed daily indices for nine Arab stock markets for infrequent trading, while the logistic map has been used to determine whether non-linearity exists in returns generating process. Next we used several econometric models to test for market efficiency. The results of runs test, variance ratio, serial correlation, BDS, and regression analysis indicate that we can reject the hypothesis that lagged price information cannot predict future prices. In other words, prices do not follow random walk properties; even after correction for thin trading. We next analyze volatility structure using GARCH models. The results of GARCH (1,1) model indicate that volatility clustering still seems to characterize some markets. While in three markets (Egypt, Kuwait, and Palestine) volatility seems to be persistent. Moreover, the results of EGARCH (1,1) model show that four markets (Bahrain, Dubai, Kuwait, and Oman) exhibit signs of leverage effect and asymmetric shocks to volatility. Compared with other emerging and international markets; Arab stock markets display relatively low rate of excessive volatility as indicated by Schwert model. Furthermore, the dependence in the second moment found to be quite enough to characterize the non-linear structure in the time series. Finally, we find that seasonality and calendar effects exist in Arab markets with three forms; day-of-the-week effect, month-of-the-year effect and the Halloween indicator. We conclude that Arab stock markets under examination are not efficient in the week form sense of efficient market hypothesis. There is a large body of empirical evidence that financial markets become highly integrated. According to modern portfolio theory, gains from international portfolio diversification are related inversely to the correlation of equity returns. The results of multivariate cointegration techniques, structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and vector autoregression (VAR) models indicate that, there is no cointegrating relation between Arab and international stock markets. The results of SVAR show that the linkage between international and Arab markets is very weak. Next we investigate the dynamic relationships among Arab markets them selves, and how do other factors; such as oil prices, affect the performance of these markets especially for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. To do that, Arab markets have been divided into two sub-groups: oil production countries (GCC countries) and non-oil production countries (Jordan, Egypt, and Palestine). The results indicate the existence of long-run relation between markets, however, the short-run linkages still very weak. Non-oil countries’ markets can offer diversification benefits for rich GCC investors. Moreover, oil prices found to have a significant effect on GCC markets and dominate the long-run equilibrium. Oil prices play a significant role in affecting GCC markets’ volatility. While after the raise in oil prices; especially during the last two years, linkages between oil prices and GCC markets increased. Four GCC markets have predictive power on oil prices, with two markets to be predicted by oil prices. We conclude that Arab stock markets can offer diversification potentials for regional and international investors. Oil prices have a significant effect on GCC markets. Finally, we suggest a strategic plan to improve these markets based on two main broad goals, improving market efficiency and increasing market liberalization. To achieve these goals we identify specific targets and strategies that could be realized through tactical programs and activities.