A 2000 year-long proxy and observational reconstruction of Central Asian climate

• Main Authors: Birkel, S. (Author), Mayewski, P. (Author), Rodda, C. (Author)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 2019
• Subjects: Aral Sea; CA; Calcium; catchment; Catchments; Central Asia; climate change; Climate change; Climate dynamics; Climate reanalyzer; climate variation; Data analysis; Data reduction; dry season; Earth (planet); Global historical climatology network; Global historical climatology network (GHCN); Human infrastructure; Hydrologic systems; paleoclimate; Paleoclimate proxy; precipitation (climatology); proxy climate record; Quaternary; reconstruction; seasonal variation; water resource; Water resources; Weather stations; wet season
• Online Access: View Fulltext in Publisher

 Central Asia (CA) is one of the most arid places on Earth and climate change threatens to disrupt the natural hydrologic systems that store its limited annual wet-season precipitation in glaciers and release it during the dry season. Warm/Wet and Cold/Dry periods recorded over the last 2000 years using multiple paleoclimate proxy records reflect a local hydrocycle dominated by the Westerlies and moisture recycling within the Aral Sea catchment. The best tool for assessing recent climate trends is modern reanalysis modeling, ground-truthed by weather station data. Using the best-fit reanalysis, we find warming and drying trends have dominated the region over the last 115 years. Continued warming and drying in glacierized eastern CA during the critical spring season when glaciers typically increase in mass increase the likelihood that human infrastructure will be needed to impound wet-season precipitation. © 2019