Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model
This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Sciendo
2016-09-01
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| Series: | Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1515/jcbtp-2016-0020 |