Bayesian probability estimates are not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes’ rule in elementary situations

Bayesian probability estimates are not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes’ rule in elementary situations

This paper has two aims. First, we investigate how often people make choices conforming to Bayes’ rule when natural sampling is applied. Second, we show that using Bayes’ rule is not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes’ rule. Simpler methods, even fallacious heuristics, might prescribe correc...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Artur eDomurat, Olga eKowalczuk, Katarzyna eIdzikowska, Zuzanna eBorzymowska, Marta eNowak-Przygodzka
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2015-08-01
Series:Frontiers in Psychology
Subjects:
Bayesian inference
Heuristics
choices
ecological rationality
Bayes’ rule
Binary hypothesis
Online Access:http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01194/full

Internet

http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01194/full

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