Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals
This study analyzes the relative accuracy of experts, polls, and the so-called ‘fundamentals’ in predicting the popular vote in the four U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2016. Although the majority (62%) of 452 expert forecasts correctly predicted the directional error of polls, the typical...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Society for Judgment and Decision Making
2018-07-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
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| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/18/18124/jdm18124.pdf |