Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates

Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates

<b>Background</b>: We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility rate (TFR) for subnational regions. <b>Objective</b>: We seek a method that is consistent with the UN's recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR projections for...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Hana Sevcikova, Adrian E. Raftery, Patrick Gerland
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 2018-06-01
Series:Demographic Research
Subjects:
autoregressive model
Bayesian hierarchical model
correlation
scaling model
subnational projections
total fertility rate (TFR)
Online Access:https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/

Internet

https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/

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