Initial growth rates of malware epidemics fail to predict their reach

Abstract Empirical studies show that epidemiological models based on an epidemic’s initial spread rate often fail to predict the true scale of that epidemic. Most epidemics with a rapid early rise die out before affecting a significant fraction of the population, whereas the early pace of some pande...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Lev Muchnik, Elad Yom-Tov, Nir Levy, Amir Rubin, Yoram Louzoun
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Publishing Group 2021-06-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91321-0