| Summary: | Background and aim: The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) decreases significantly in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients with sustained virologic response (SVR) after pegylated-interferon plus ribavirin (PR) or direct-acting antiviral (DAAs) therapy. We follow-up a single cohort of CHC patients to identify risk factors associated with HCC development post-SVR. Method: CHC patients with SVR in Beijing/Hong Kong were followed up at 12–24 weekly intervals with surveillance for HCC by ultrasonography and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to explore factors associated with HCC occurrence. Results: Between October 2015 and May 2017, SVR was observed in 519 and 817 CHC patients after DAAs and PR therapy respectively. After a median post -SVR follow-up of 48 months, HCC developed in 54 (4.4%) SVR subjects. By adjusted Cox analysis, older age (≥55 years) [HR 2.4, 95% CI (1.3–4.3)], non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases [HR 2.4, 95%CI (1.3–4.2), higher AFP level (≥20 ng/ml) [HR 3.4, 95%CI (2.0–5.8)], higher liver stiffness measurement (≥14.6 kPa) [HR 4.2, 95%CI (2.3–7.6)], diabetes mellitus [HR 4.2, 95%CI (2.4–7.4)] at pre-treatment were associated with HCC occurrence. HCC patients in the DAAs induced SVR group had a higher prevalence of NAFLD as compared with those in the PR induced SVR group, 62% (18/29) vs 28% (7/25), p = 0.026. A nomogram formulated with the above six independent variables had a Concordance-Index of 0.835 (95% CI 0.783–0.866). Conclusion: Underlying NAFLD is associated with increased incidence of HCC in chronic HCV patients post-SVR, particularly in those treated with DAA.
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