Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws
Consider the problem of modelling memory effects in discrete-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains. This paper explores cross-validation and information criteria as proxies for a model’s predictive accuracy. Our objective is to select, from data, the number of prior states of recent hi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
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| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.182174 |