Comparative evaluation of the forecast accuracy of analysis reports and a prediction market
This paper summarizes an empirical comparison of the accuracy of forecasts included in analysis reports developed by professional intelligence analysts to comparable forecasts in a prediction market that has broad participation from across an intelligence community. To compare forecast accuracy, 99...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
2018-03-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/17/17815/jdm17815.pdf |