Why do some probabilistic forecasts lack reliability?
In this work, we investigate the reliability of the probabilistic binary forecast. We mathematically prove that a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for achieving a reliable probabilistic forecast is maximizing the Peirce Skill Score (PSS) at the threshold probability of the climatological bas...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
EDP Sciences
2019-01-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2019/01/swsc180050/swsc180050.html |