Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis
This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the best pr...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Risks |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/2/31 |