Estimating the probability of a major outbreak from the timing of early cases: an indeterminate problem?

Conservation biologists, as well as veterinary and public health officials, would benefit greatly from being able to forecast whether outbreaks of infectious disease will be major. For values of the basic reproductive number (R0) between one and two, infectious disease outbreaks have a reasonable ch...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Meggan E Craft, Hawthorne L Beyer, Daniel T Haydon
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23483934/?tool=EBI