Bayesian posteriors for arbitrarily rare events

We study how much data a Bayesian observer needs to correctly infer the relative likelihoods of two events when both events are arbitrarily rare. Each period, either a blue die or a red die is tossed. The two dice land on side 1 with unknown probabilities p[subscript 1] and q[subscript 1], which can...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Fudenberg, Drew (Contributor), He, Kevin (Author), Imhof, Lorens A. (Author)
Other Authors: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics (Contributor)
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: National Academy of Sciences, 2018-01-19T20:28:12Z.
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